Sunday, 12 July 2009

If voters had a narrative...

Political communicators like narratives.

We like discussing them, arguing about them and working out what each party's narrative is.

All three party leaders have been developing their narratives. The parties they represent have separate narratives.

British voters can't get together and decide a narrative but that doesn't mean they can't have one.

In 1997 one could argue the narrative was 'let's say goodbye to the Conservatives'. In many of the seats that Labour won the Liberal Democrat vote dropped significantly. Likewise, where the Lib Dems took seats from the Conservatives, Labour voters switched to the third party.

Looking at the polls today, the current narrative doesn't appear to be 'let's say goodbye to Labour'. Not yet anyway.

The emerging themes appear to be:
  • Voters are fed up with Labour
  • Voters are unsure about Brown as Prime Minister
  • Voters are angry over expenses
  • Voters are unsure about the Conservatives
  • Voters think all politicians are the same
  • Voters like Vince Cable but remain to be convinced that that is a good enough reason for voting Lib Dem, especially when the party can't form a government
What the polls indicate is that we are looking at a Tory Government with a slim majority.

There are different challenges for each party if the above is correct.

The questions they might be asking are:
  • Should the Lib Dems position themselves as the party that can help get rid of Labour? If they do, what do they say in the seats where they are fighting the Conservatives?
  • Can Labour do anything to mitigate a serious loss of seats to the Conservatives, Lib Dems and SNP or even to turn the polls around and win?
  • Can Cameron do more to increase voter enthusiasm for his party?
  • Will the small parties benefit from all this and what can the three main parties do to stop that happening?

Post a Comment