Before the UK local elections on Thursday I set out what I thought was likely to happen.
I was right that Boris Johnson would be re-elected Mayor of London.
I was wrong about Labour. They in fact did better than expected.
The Conservatives didn't do well, I thought they might not do as badly as some polls suggested, and I was right about the Lib Dems.
In the London Mayoral contest, it was the Greens who beat the Lib Dems into fourth place.
Nationally, UKIP did well but there is no feeling of a breakthrough.
As expected turnout was low.
Some Conservatives are making the argument that Boris did well in London because he is clearly a Conservative while the the Conservative-led coalition suffered nationally because it is more liberal.
The reality is that the vote in London was close. Labour may have won if Ken Livingstone had not been the candidate. While everyone knows Boris is a Tory, the Mayor has limited scope for action and it is difficult to pick out many Tory policies he has enacted. He has reduced that part of of the Council tax the Mayor has a say over but how much that has registered with voters is hard to say.
People quite like Boris, Labour party supporters said they would be voting for him and he hasn't done anything to upset voters. That could be why he was returned to office but there is no evidence to tell us one way or another.
The other interesting thing about the argument that the Conservative party dud badly because it isn't conservative is the assumption that voters were sending a message about the national government and not responding to local issues.
