tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54082383090673847372024-03-06T03:37:06.846+00:00Simon GoldieReflections on politics, culture and lifeSimon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.comBlogger1772125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-43438958012089159412021-10-12T09:37:00.000+01:002021-10-12T09:37:01.193+01:00Energy Crisis and Government Action<p>Like many countries, Britain has a shortage of gas. Many others have written about why this has happened. It can be traced back to government decisions of many countries going back several years. It has involved what energy to opt for and who to buy it from. It is also likely that the lockdowns of 2020 disrupted supply chains leading to unintended consequences.</p><p>In the last few days a row appears to have erupted between HM Treasury (HMT) and the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). On Sunday, the Secretary of State at BEIS Kwasi Kwarteng said in a television interview that he was in talks with the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. An unidentified HMT spokesperson denied this and apparently claimed Kwarteng was making it up. </p><p>The latest reports are saying that the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, intervened and that HMT will provide some financial support for businesses that are struggling.</p><p>It is not unusual for officials or political advisers to brief against others in government. That said, implying a Secretary of State is being liberal with the truth is stretching normal bounds of behaviour. We only know what has been reported. We don't know who said it or exactly how it was said.</p><p>From all this we can conclude that HMT are keen to tighten expenditure and reduce spending after its year of financial support. Traditionally, HMT wins out in these arguments but is seems in this case that BEIS might have persudaed their Whitehall colleagues to act. How significant that is will only be clear in the next twelve months. Could it represent a power shift or simply a response to a difficult situation? </p><p>On past form it is HMT that calls the shots over the long-term. It would be surprising if that changed. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-44747375600756823182021-10-07T10:43:00.002+01:002021-10-07T10:43:10.252+01:00Latest Political Opinion Poll <p> <i>Gudio Fawkes </i>has the latest political opinion poll since the party conferences.</p><p>You can see it<a href="https://order-order.com/2021/10/07/first-post-conference-polling-sees-parties-unchanged/" target="_blank"> here.</a></p><p>Gudio argues that the party conferences haven't cut through with the public. That might be the case but as this blog previously stated normally there is a poll boucne after each conference.</p><p>The results on this occasion could mean that the conferences haven't shifted views: the Conservatiives still lead. Alternatively, the conferences reinforced the public's views about who they prefer.</p><p> <br /><i></i></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-40984303692948474462021-10-06T11:31:00.004+01:002021-10-06T11:31:58.461+01:00British Prime Minister's Speech<p>The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will address the Conservative party conference today.</p><p>There have already been plenty of speculation on what he will say. It is likely that he will criticise busienss for being reliant on 'cheap labour', talk up the work the Government is doing on the transition to Net Zero and encourage office workers to return to the office.<br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-26023854526288377502021-10-04T12:29:00.002+01:002021-10-04T12:29:19.219+01:00Conservative party conference: a narrative at odds with reality?<p>The Conservative party conference is in full swing. As well as speakers in the main conference hall there are fringe events covering a wide-range of issues and many receptions to attend.</p><p>So far the comments made by senior politicians including the Prime Minister and Chancellor sets out a Conservative narrative of a low-tax and non-eceonomic interventionist Cabinet. Yet, the Chancellor has also said that in the short-term taxes need to rise and we have seen the Government willing to make signiifcant interventions in the economy.</p><p>Walking that line, between political aspiration and policy direction, will be a challenge and during the next few days it will be interesting to see if it is further elaborated on and how the public react.<br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-45982506155982031142021-09-30T13:23:00.002+01:002021-09-30T13:23:07.129+01:00Party Political Poll Bounce?<p>A party political conference is an opportunity for its members to meet, develop policies, show off their rising stars and get a bounce in the opinion polls. This usually happens because the media has been covering the conference and that puts the party front of mind when asked who are you likely to vote for if there was a general election tomorrow.</p><p>Each party benefits so one shouldn't read too much into the bounce.</p><p>Labour's party conference has just ended with mixed reviews from the pundits. The Conservatives begin theirs on Saturday. It will be interesting to see what the polls say in the next few weeks.</p><p>Labour will hope they have done enough to look like a government-in-waiting. The Conservatives, as the uncmbent governing party, will be watching to see if the polls shift and by how much. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-19166004313658456432021-09-30T13:16:00.004+01:002021-09-30T13:16:28.850+01:00Sir Keir Starmer's Speech<p>Sir Keir Starmer made his keynote speech to the Labour party conference yesterday. In case you missed it, it is below.</p><p> </p><p> <br /></p>
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cpuBijRqEmU" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-8338587451919852252021-09-28T14:33:00.000+01:002021-09-28T14:33:00.533+01:00Labour in Brighton: What its annual conference tells us<p>The Labour party is Her Majesty's Official Opposition in Britain. It has that role because at the last general election it came second in terms of elected members of parliament. As the official opposition, its job is to hold the elected government to account and effectively be a government-in-waiting. <br /></p><p>There is an old cliche that says oppositions don't win elections, government lose them. Like any cliche there is a lot of truth to this. However, the opposition has to look like it is capable of governing, otherwise it won't win voters support.</p><p>At this point, you might be thinking the curent Conservative government isn't capbale of governing. If you do take this view there isn't much you can do until the next election. The voters supported the Boris Johnson-led Tories and according to most opinion polls think that the Prime Minister is doing a good job. Whatever your personal views to analyse what is going on, it is important to look at how the public see things. The public this weke will be seeing reports of the Labour party conference in Brighton. <br /></p><p>They may well be asking, does Labour look like a government-in-waiting? On the plus side, the party's leader Sir Keir Starmer has issued a long essay that sets out his views. It didn't appear to catch the imagination of reporters but it shows he is serious and is background for future policy announcements. As well as that, the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, gave a speech on reforming the tax system that was designed to win over the 'working class' who have switched sides and put the Tories into power.</p><p>What has in fact dominated the news is Labour's Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, calling the Tories scum and refusing to apologise. Rayner has been tipped for the top job and there are rumours that she is preparing to campaign for th job if things go wrong for her boss. What will this outburst do for her chances? Party members and supporters who think the same way will be pleased by her no-nonsense approach. Starmer hasn't sacked her but has condoned her language. <br /></p><p>It is likely that Rayner will have put off the voters Labour needs to win the next general election. While she will have cemented support among the grssroots of the party, she has probably made it more dificult to ever become leader and certainly Prime Minister. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-86832854443817741512021-07-20T11:04:00.003+01:002021-07-20T11:04:36.413+01:00'Freedom Day' and Social Care<p>Two big stories dominate the news today. </p><p>Yesterday, was 'Freedom Day' when almost all legal restrictions were lifted in England. The devolved regions have powers to continue restrictions if they wish. There have been a lot of arguments over the decision to remove the mask mandate and end social distancing. Many have said the government is giving mixed messages and the public is confused.</p><p>The latest opinion poll, conducted before Monday 19 July, sees the Conservative party increase its support. Will the latest Covid-19 policy decisions dent that? </p><p>In other days, today there is a lot of speculation over whether the Government will increase national insurance (NI) contributions to pay for social care. The Conservatie manifesto said they woulnd't raise NI so this would be a significant change. Paying for social care has been discussed for many years and this Government has said they will find a solution. We will have to wait and see if the rumours are true and if they are what that means for the Tories electoral standing.<br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-73630411878791545032021-07-19T15:00:00.001+01:002021-07-19T15:00:00.261+01:00UK Parliament TV<p>If you want to know what goes on in the UK's parliament, you can watch it all <a href="https://parliamentlive.tv/commons/" target="_blank">on parliament.tv.</a></p><p>The channel shows the debates as well as committee 'hearings'. </p><p> <br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-12823273775815378792021-07-19T11:30:00.001+01:002021-07-19T11:30:00.272+01:00The Issues that Will dominate British politics<p>Aside from the handling of Covid-19, the big issues that will dominate British politics over the next few months are likely to be:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Moving to net zero - the Government have set targets. The Opposition will argue there is no plan.</li><li>Economic recovery and possible inflation - as Britain comes out of the government-imposed restrictions will the economic recovery be hamstrung by rising inflation?</li><li>The Culture Wars - this has been bubbling away for a while but appears to be gathering momentum as politicans and commentators focus on it and draw their own lines. It won't be idnetical to the culture war in America but expect to hear more on this.</li><li>Government investment - there will be rows over support for public services, investing in infrastructure and whether the Government can achieve its levelling up agenda. </li></ul><p>This blog will do its best to explain what is going on and the impact these issues will have on the electoral success of the parties. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-6569499856242989102021-07-19T10:30:00.002+01:002021-07-19T10:30:00.255+01:00British Parliament Heads Towards Recess<p>On 22 July, the British parliament will go into recess. The Members of Parliament (MPs), the elected representatives will take a holiday, catch up on their postbag and perhaps do some local campaigning. </p><p>If you live in Britain and fancy <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2021/july/uk-parliament-to-re-open-for-tours-for-members-of-the-public2/" target="_blank">touring the Palace of Westminster</a>, you can do so from 28 July until 4 September. </p><p>While the MPs stop debating and passing legislation, government continues. The two big issues Ministers will face, that inter relate with each other, are what happens with Covid-19 and what the economy looks like after months of lockdowns and restrictions.</p><p>Today, 19 July, all legal restrictions on people and businesses are lifted. The Government has said that from now on they will advise the public but not compel them. There are many voices raising concerns about this. Doctors, scientists, commentators and politicans are worried that Covid-19 and its Delta variant will spread quickly without mandated social distancing and masks.</p><p>Some organisations, such as London transport will continue to insist that passengers wear masks. Many people may voluntarily decide to do so and keep some distance.</p><p>Whchever way the numbers go, it is likley to be hard to discern what is causing this. If numbers increase some will claim it is because the mandated restrictions were lifted to soon. Others may claim it was going to happen regardless or the restrictions people are imposing on themselves volunatarily are causing it. As an example, there is a view among some scientists that masks increase risk of infection: a counter intuitive argument to what the Government and its scientific advisers have told us.</p><p>What we know for sure is that the arguments will continue over the summer and into the autumn and winter. </p><p><br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-25414726009576453522021-07-16T16:40:00.001+01:002021-07-16T16:40:10.256+01:00Friday musing<p> It struck me today how we take innovation and technology for granted.</p><p>Scrolling through my Twitter feed there was an ad from Apple TV. The picture was wonderfully clear with no interruptions. If you are on Twitter you will have seen the sort of thing. A decade or so ago it would have been unthinkable. </p><p>If we get complacent about things like that we will forget all things necessary to make sure innovation happens. </p><p>Enjoy the weekend. </p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-55309406728751588832021-07-07T12:57:00.005+01:002021-07-16T13:22:46.991+01:00Grace's World: Don't get the Virus<p>This blog has previously linked to <i>Grace's World</i>, the short comedy drama's on YouTube.</p><p>One of her latest is all about trying to avoid a virus, not that virus, and the confusion that follows.</p><p>Enjoy.</p><p><br /></p>
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8UdI6VkE6gE" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-89396505818656446562021-05-11T09:22:00.002+01:002021-05-11T09:22:08.550+01:00The Queen's Speech<p>Today sees the opening of the British parliament. The parliament shuts during elections and 'parliaments' tend to run for about a year, depending on circumstance, and then a new parliament begins.</p><p>To kick this off, the Queen, who is the head of state, opens parliament with a speech written by the Government. The speech sets out the legislative programme and coming after the local elections on 6 May, the road map out of the government-imposed lockdown and the first year of Breixt, gives this speech more importance than normal.</p><p>The expectation is that there will be a focus on the 'levelling up' agenda - increasing prosperity across Britain. </p><p>If you wish to watch the Queen's speech it will be covered by the BBC and streamed on its website.<br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-21087970790441765082021-05-10T12:00:00.001+01:002021-05-10T12:00:00.246+01:00What makes the modern Conservative party tick?<p>In order to understand why governments do what they do, you need to understand their philosophical hinterland. Like the other two main parties in Britain, the governing party - the Conservatives - is a broad church. The one constant since its creation is its policy adaptability.</p><p>That adaptability has meant the party is the most successful political machine in Britain and arguably across Western democracies. </p><p>Many commentators say that Boris Johnson's (the Prime Minister and Conservative leader) Conservative party is economically interventionist and socially conservative. This they say goes a long way to explain the party's electoral success as this positioning appeals to the English working class.</p><p>Like everything in life, the picture is more complicated than that. It is true the Government has intervened in the economy but every government does this one way or another. The Government have said they will be tough on immigration but so was previous Conservative and Labour governments. In other ways, the current administration is small 'l' liberal.</p><p>A new political grouping that was formed a few weeks ago, the <a href="https://www.freemarketforum.org" target="_blank">Free Market Forum</a>, has signed up senior Conservative politicians including Cabinet members. During the next few years we may see that strand of the party exert more influence. </p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-39634824472454616902021-05-10T11:00:00.000+01:002021-05-10T11:00:02.841+01:00A new opposition party: is there everything to play for?<p>It looks as though the Green party is about to overtake the centre-Left social democratic opposition party, challenging the established the conservative governing party. </p><p>This is what is happening in Germany. Could Britain be next?</p><p>The Labour party are going through a lot of soul searching after the various elections on 6 May. As this blog has made clear, potentallly Labour faces a structural challenge as demographics change across the coutnry and key regions appear to have turned their back on the centre-Left.</p><p>It is difficult for third parties to break through the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system. That doens't mean it won't happen. The Liberal party dominated up until the 1920s. It very quickly collapsed and the Labour party replaced it. Ever since, the Liberal party and now the Liberal Democats have hoped history might repeat itself but in its favour.</p><p>The most likeley scenario is that Labour reformulates its electoral proposition and demonstrates its credibility while hoping the governing party loses its way. </p><p>If Labour can't do that then there could be an opening for a third party to replace Her Majesty's Opposition.</p><p>Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats would like it to be them. While the Greens are relatively small its policies may connect more with Labour's middle class professional supporters. One other potential option would be a merger between both parties.</p><p>As always, watch this space. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-36570745502221581242021-05-10T10:47:00.000+01:002021-05-10T10:47:02.389+01:00Andy Burnham: the next leader of the Labour party?<p>After his re-election as Manchester Metro Mayor, there is speculation that Andy Burnham could be the next leader of the Labour party. </p><p>Burnham has made it be known he might consider this and threw his hat into the ring in 2010 and 2015. </p><p>Normally, party leaders are members of parliament. However, Andrew Adonis (Labour peer) recently tweeted that the next leader wouldn't necessarily have to be a MP. Presumably, if Burnham or another non-MP were elected they would stand for parliament in due course. </p><p>Right now there is no vacancy. However, the current learder Sir Keir Starmer is under increasing pressure after the elections on 6 May. If he remains leader until the next general election and doesn't take Labour into power, it is likely Starmer will stand down. </p><p>Burnham is a credible candidate. He is seen as doing a good job in Manchester. During his acceptance speech last week he set out an ambitious plan for the city's bus network that is likely to appeal to Labour party members and supporters. He appeals to the 'soft Left' and centre of the party. With one or two of acceptable policies for the 'hard' Left he could probably carry that section of the pary too.</p><p>None of this means he will get the job. There will be other candidates vying for the job but expect to hear more about Burnham in the next few years. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-46852063645146312302021-05-10T10:00:00.001+01:002021-05-10T10:00:00.285+01:00What will the Conservative Government do with its political capital?<p>When a political party wins a general election there is a view that it has some political capital to spend. This needs to be done wisely. It is easy to run out of capital or find your plans mean you need to spend it nice: which of course you can't.</p><p>Normally, when local elections come around the sitting government takes a bit of an electoral hit. There are a various reasons why this happens. The local English elections last Thursday (6 May) were different. The governing party did well. That gives the Government some extra political capital. </p><p>We know the big policy issues the Conservatives are focusing on: levelling up the regions, increasing productivity, achieving net zero targets for cars and making sure Britain is global.</p><p>Clearly, they will continue to focus on all of the above. They will argue that support continues for those policies. They might also feel emboldened to do more in line with their philosophical thinking. </p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-72365710808266323522021-05-08T09:41:00.003+01:002021-05-08T09:41:32.912+01:00British local election news: Saturday<p>Today we should expect the results of the London and Birmingham Mayoral votes. It is widely expected that both incumbents, Sadiq Khan (Labour) and Andy Street (Conservative) will be re-elected. There is a Twitter rumour that London has become too close to call. If this is correct it would mean the opinion polls got it badly wrong. It would also means that the Conservative party can win, or come close to winning, in large seats as well as outside metropolitan areas. </p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-19291551694126113312021-05-08T09:35:00.004+01:002021-05-08T09:35:29.832+01:00Local election updates<p>For readers keen to keep up with the latest news, the BBC's website provides wide coverage including a search function that allows you to see what is happening in different parts of the country.</p><p>Here's <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news" target="_blank">the link</a>.</p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-87701156554392105132021-05-07T16:25:00.006+01:002021-05-07T22:15:35.379+01:00What now for the British Labour party?<p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="ab7f">Thursday
6 May saw voting take place across Britain as the public chose local
councillors, Metro Mayors, police commissioners, members of the Scottish
parliament, representatives of devolved assemblies and for a new member
of parliament for Hartlepool.</p><section class="dh gk gl dc gm"><div class="n p"><div class="ap aq ar as at fm av w"><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="7ce3">Not
all the results in. We know that the Labour party lost the Hartelpool
by-election and that the governing Conservative party, also known as the
Tories, are making gains across England in the local elections.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="2974">Later today, or tomor<span id="rmm"><span id="rmm"><span id="rmm"><span id="rmm"><span id="rmm"><span id="rmm"><span id="rmm">r</span></span></span></span></span></span></span>ow,
we will have a clearer picture of what has happened in Scotland. There
the governing party, the Scottish National Party (SNP), is predicting to
be returned to power. What we don’t know is whether the party’s
majority will be reduced and which party will come second.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="c9cf">In
the next few weeks there will be a lot of articles written about why
Labour failed to cut through, why voters like Boris and what the result
in Scotland means for Scottish independence.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="4e85">There
are a range of reasons why Labour has yet to turn around the
Conservative voting majority: their candidate in Hartlepool didn’t
relfect the electorate’s views, the Conservative Government is seen as
having done a good job on its Covid vaccination programme, and its
leader isn’t having the impact the party needs.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="e042">There
is though a deeper question that the Labour party needs to address.
Before the electoral rise of the SNP, the Labour party used to dominate
Scottish politics. Labour held many seats in northern England and had a
strong base among ordinary working people. When Labour last won power,
in 2005, it relied heavily on Scottish MPs to achieve its majority.
Those MPs lost to the SNP. At the last general election in 2020, the
Conservatives took may of the ‘red wall’ seats in the north from Labour.
Many working people whose families always cast their vote for Labour
have gone over to the Tories.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="d6a4">That deeper question question for Labour is whether the changes mentioned above mean it cannot win the keys to №10.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="54b1">It
is worth rememebring that governing parties, and their supporters, get
tired, that demographics change and that parties can reposition and win.
Far too often pundits have written off either of the two main parties
only to chronicle their return to power years later.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="f7b4">If
the structural changes that have taken place to the electoral map hold
firm, with Labour only succeeding in large cities and the professional
middle class vote, the Conservative party could be in power for a very
long time. To prevent this Labour may need to reinvent itself in a way
that its political rival does: taking policies from its philosophical
spectrum and weaving them into a new electoral proposition. If it fails,
and if those structural changes remain, a new political offering may
emerge. That will be challenging because Britain’s first-past-the-post
voting system favours two large parties.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="117e">We
have no way of predicting the future but it is these big picture
questions Labour members need to grapple with. The Conservatives too will
be thinking about what the 6 May results mean and how they can extend
their time in office. Any changes either party makes it will affect its
opponent.</p><p class="gn go gp gq b gr hi gs gt gu hj gv gw gx hk gy gz ha hl hb hc hd hm he hf hh dh ea" data-selectable-paragraph="" id="1964">If nothing else, British politics will be interesting in the years ahead.</p></div></div></section>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-65287167104117337692021-05-07T09:43:00.003+01:002021-05-07T09:43:14.942+01:00British Labour party lose by-election<p>As predicted by the opinion polls, pundits and politicians, the Labour party has lost the Hartlepool by-election. Depsite the many commentators attmepting to explain why the voters opted for a party that has never one in the constituency, one can never be completely sure why people vote as they do.</p><p>The possible reasons include the fact that the constituency voted overwhleming for Britain to leave the European Union in 2016 and the Labour candidate argued strongly Britain should stay. There is also the vaccine bounce: many people have had the Covid vaccine and this is seen as a majot success for the Conservative Government. Then there are Labour's polciies and its leader. The Left of the Labour party think that Sir Keir Starmber has moved to the centre, while the centre and Right of the party think he has yet to do enough to signal real change.</p><p>The focus will certainly be on his leadership and the result, along with the local election results to come could undermine. There is a counter to that. It depends on how Starmer responds and deals with the situation. The defeat could give him a further reason to reform the party, shifting its policies and positioning. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-62358462150337686272021-05-06T11:09:00.003+01:002021-05-06T11:09:46.366+01:00The Guardian's anniversary<p>The British newspaper, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk" target="_blank"><i>the Guardian</i></a>, is 200 years old. That is no mean feat in today's multi-media digital landscape. </p><p>For those who don't know the paper, it is on the centre-left. It was founded after the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterloo_Massacre" target="_blank">Peterloo Massacre</a> and stood for free trade and open markets, later evolving into a champion of Keynesian interventionist policies. </p><p>It doesn't have a paywall but readers can subscribe or make donations if they wish. </p><p>If you want to understand the thinking of the British Left it is the paper to read. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-41170230244764471382021-05-06T10:54:00.002+01:002021-05-06T10:54:14.999+01:00UK Labour say Tory sleaze: the Tories say voters aren't listening<p>The last time the UK Labour party won a general election it was led by Tony Blair. Blair and his advisers borrowed heaivly from the Bill Clinton campaign playbook: triangulate your policies and address the concerns of working people. In addition, Blair focused on Tory 'sleaze'. During the latter part of the Major adminstration there had been a number of scandals involving sex or money.</p><p>Framing this as Tory sleaze helped undermine the Conservative government and was partly responsible for Labour's victory.</p><p>That was 2005. Fast forward to 2021 and Tory sleaze is back in the headlines. As the British public go to the polls today voting for local councillors, devolved assemly represenatives, Scottish parliamentary members and Mayors, sleaze will be seen as either having cut through or not effecting how people vote.</p><p>We will have a clearer idea tomorrow whether the sleaze allegations have landed. What is more likely is that Labour and its leader Sir Keir Starmer are playing a long game. The more they can accuse government minsiters of sleaze the more the perception that there is something wrong will grow. Of course this strategy relies on more accusations of misbehaviour in the future. <br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5408238309067384737.post-8230611228421256332021-05-05T09:54:00.002+01:002021-05-05T09:54:16.474+01:00Brexit: Britain and EU relations<p>Britain's new relationship with the European Union began on 1 January 2021. At the end of December 2020, the tranistion arrangement came to a close and the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement came into force.</p><p>Since then there have been some arguments over trade in Northern Ireland and vaccine distribution. Generally goods have been traded. If you supported Britain leaving you would probably view this as an overrall success while those who wanted Britain to stay believe that more problems will emerge over time.</p><p>Two recent developments give an indication of what the relationship might evolve into. The EU is close to allowing British motorists in EU member states to drive without having to do a huge amoutn of paperwork. The second is that negotiations are continuing over the trading between Britain, Northern Ireland and the rest of EU. Nothing has been decided yet but there are hints that the EU is willing to reduce the adminsitrative burden on importers to Northern Ireland if the UK agrees to adhere to EU food standards.</p><p>If both these developments come about then it appears that a more pragmatic approach will be taken by the EU and Britain over issues like this in the future.<br /></p>Simon Goldiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10692365973957276497noreply@blogger.com0